The falling Market, and your Portfolio?What to do?

The falling markets and your Portfolio – what to do?

During the last one month you must have noticed that equity markets have been going down. Large cap index is down about 5-8% from their all time highs. Worst hit are small caps (index down 40-45% from all time high) and Midcaps (index down 20-25% from all time high). Some stocks are down by 60-70% from top. You must be wondering why is all this happening, should you sell now and and is it worth at all to invest in equity markets. I understand your concern.
What you are witnessing right now is painful but a pretty normal behavior for the  markets. They tend to respond to sentiments in the short term and fundamentals in the long term. For no reason, markets can go up and down by 10-15% in a matter of few months. It has happened many times in the past and it will continue to happen in future too. This behavior is not limited to India but seen across world markets.
A few pointers:-
– Most of the times (say 9 out of 10 times), markets recover from short term corrections within a few months or quarters. The best action is to remain invested and ignore the volatility.
– Sometimes (say 1 out of 10 times), markets will go in deep corrections of 30-50%. This happens once or twice every decade and lasts a few years. It starts with a small correction and the slide continues to the bottom. Everything bleeds. The reason of such fall could be weak economy and future outlook, falling international markets or scams like 2008. How to protect this? Well, the honest answer is, we can’t. Almost no one knows for sure that markets will fall so much. At best, it’s a wild guess of a few so called analysts, who shout loud after the incidence. It’s just a matter of being lucky this time with their prediction. We must know that these analysts or predictors are mostly those who got it wrong many times and no one noticed. You may ask – Can I predict it and save your losses? Frankly, my answer is No. At best, I can minimise the impact by proper asset allocation, understanding your needs and monitoring your portfolio regularly. So, the hard truth is that even when markets fall by 30-50%, the only choice and best course of action is to stay invested, continue your SIPs and wait for markets to recover. Trying to time the market (selling and hoping to buy at a lower price) never works.
– During bad times, media will aggrevate the situation by highlighting things even more. I bet, they also know nothing about it and just have a good time by getting all the attention of readers and viewers, increased TRPs and ad revenues.
– Investing through mutual funds is safer than investing directly in stocks. While mutual funds have fallen but the damage is huge in individual stocks. While some stocks may never recover, most mutual funds recover from lows to their previous highs and even better due to expert fund management.
– It is very natural for you to feel the pain because of portfolio value going down. I can understand and I feel the pain too. Trust me, I am reviewing everything and doing my best I can.
– The worst thing to do at this time is to panic. It might so happen that after you redeem/book profits/book losses, markets will continue to slide and you will feel you did the right thing. Well, in the short term, yes. But unless you buy at the bottom, you won’t benefit from this exercise because markets will definitely go up with time. And buying low happens only in theory.
– Events like these are lessons for both you and me to learn and improve our future decisions and action, to stick to asset allocation, to take only those risks which we can and to plan things better.
– Goal based planning works best. We must not take risky bets with short term money. If the money that you have invested is for long term, let it stay long term.
We need to work together in thick and thin. We need to discuss being on the same side of the table. These are tough times and we will go through with it together.
Feel free to call me anytime if you wish to discuss on the portfolio and future action plan.

Best Regards:
Mohit jagga
Financial Advisor.

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What is your style for Investing? Here's a Ready Reckoner!

Stock Investment is very much like a buying a Mobile phone.

Most of us, at least once in our lives, have racked our brains over which phone to buy. With so many options in the market, and each option characterized by its own special attributes, it is a tough decision. Should you buy the one with a larger RAM? Or should you go with the one with a better camera? Or should you just get the pink one?
Investing in stocks is eerily similar. Should you invest in Coal India which recently posted spectacular profit growth? Or should you go with the safe and stable HUL? Or should you just get something which has been rallying? These seemingly simple questions form the basis of factor-investing or style-based investing.
All stocks in the market can be compared based on some common fundamental attributes – profit growth, leverage, return on equity, price-growth, variability of earnings, valuation multiples, and so on. These attributes characterise factors or styles – the Value factor represents stocks available at cheap valuation multiples; Growth factor, as the name suggests, represents the set of stocks which have been posting high growths in profits; Momentum stocks are the ones which have exhibited recent price appreciation; and Quality stocks represent the safe and stable stocks characterized by low leverage, stable earnings, and decent returns on equity.
Just as in the world of phones, all-rounders are hard to come by. Stocks which fare well on some of the attributes may not fare well on others. For example, if a stock has been consistently posting higher profit growths, it is not likely to be available at a low enough valuation multiple. Similarly, a stock which has been posting relatively slow and stable growth in profits, may not provide a steep enough price appreciation. Basically, there is no stock that has a perfect score on all attributes, and is available at cheap valuations. Thus, arises the need to make a choice.
With phones, if you are a video game junkie, you would choose the one with a powerful processor, great display, and a long battery life. If you are into selfies, you would prefer something that has a better camera and fancy filters. Similarly, in investing, if you are looking for a good night's sleep, you would go for Quality stocks. But if you like the thrill of investing and want to experience the ups and downs of the stock market, you should go with the riskier Momentum investing. No factor fits all. You or your investment advisor should first analyse your risk appetite, investment objectives, and constraints before going for any of these styles of investing.
Another important point to note with factor investing is that factors are cyclical. No style of investing does well all the time. The starkest example of this is Momentum investing. When the market is exuberant, rising stocks keep rising, and if you are a Momentum investor, you keep minting money. But the happy ride stops abruptly when bulk of the investors start getting wary of the heights and book profits.
Needless to say, if you stay invested, you would be in for a rude shock when the rally reverses. Similarly, Value stocks can go years with meager returns before people start buying into them, and only then, would you be able to reap benefits on your Value buys. Usually, it is at the turn of a rally, that people start noticing the quiet Value stocks sitting at the corner. What this means is that Value and Momentum are negatively correlated – in trending markets, rising Momentum stocks are the hotspot of all share market activity, and the unpopular Value stocks are sidelined.
However, as soon as the rally ends and people turn risk-averse, Momentum stocks plummet, and Value stocks take the centre-stage.
This behaviour of factors has given way to multi-factor investing, wherein the objective is to invest in the right factor at the right time. But market-timing is an elusive seductress… in the greed to make money in all market scenarios, you could get the timing wrong and end up losing your nest egg. It is, therefore, usually a much smarter bet to stay invested in a single-factor based portfolio provided you have the stomach to patiently ride out the market ups-and-downs, which can be punishing at times.
In this series, we shall explore the most common factors in considerable detail – the intuition behind them, hypothetical portfolios and their performance, and the pitfalls to look out for.

Why Mutual funds Sahi hai??

*List of HERO TO ZERO Stock*

1. Reliance Infra   - 2500 > 42.70
2. Rel Capital   - 2924 > 62
3. Rel Power  - 430 > 4.15
4. R COM - 800 > 1.45
5. R NAVAL - 117 > 3
6. DHFL   - 690 > 62.90
7. Jet Airways - 883 > 33
8. Jain Irrigation - 264 > 25
9. PC jewellers  - 600 > 45
10. Vakrangee  - 515 > 31
11. Suzlon  - 400 > 3.35
12. Kwality  - 225> 2.45
13. JP Associates  - 339 > 2.70
14. JP Power - 140 > 1.90
15. JP Infra - 100 > 1.60
16. manpasand beverages  - 500 > 28
17. Central Bank - 210 > 22
18. J&K Bank  - 176 > 34.70
19. Mercator - 165 > 1.65
20. Aban offshore - 5400 > 35.40
21. Sintex Plastic Tech - 120 > 8
22. BPL 152 > 21
23. HDIL 1100 > 14.50
24. Videocon 760 > 1.70
25. MTNL 217 > 7.60
26. ILFS 308 > 3.10
27. Cox & King - 367 > 62.70
28. Mcleod Russel  - 325 > 18.85
29. Eros Int  - 643 > 25.80
30. LEEL  Electricals - 340 > 7.30
31. Alok Ind 105 > 3.80
32. Subex 725 > 5.80
33. Adlabs  - 207 > 4.05
34. Atlanta - 270 > 9.30
35. IFCI - 114 > 7.65
36. GMR Infra - 124 > 14.80
37. Uttam Galva  - 172 > 7.55
38. Oil Country  - 172 > 5.90
39. Punj Llyod - 580 > 1.25
40. Lovable lingerie - 612 > 69
41. Shree Renuka Sugar - 120 > 9
42. Patel Eng  - 1020 > 18.80
43. RS Software  - 400 > 20.75
44. On mobile - 361 > 31.15
45. Windsor machines - 150 > 25.10
46. Bartronics  - 255 > 3.90
47. Rolta - 375 > 5.45
48. kohinoor food - 136 > 16.30
49. Dolphin offshore - 445 > 29.40
50. Snowman logist - 130 > 29.50
51. IRB INFRA 310 > 93
52. HEG 4500 > 1320
53. Varroc Engineers 1151 > 450
54. Goa Carbon 1185 > 340
55. Hotel leela 85 > 7.55
56. Vodafone Idea 118 > 11.35
57. Educomp 1100 > 1.50
58. VIP Clothing 100 > 11.70
59. Gati 290 > 57
60. GTPL 180 > 58
Regards
Mohit jagga
Financial Advisor

http://www.wealthymill.com/

Cont: 9466787277

That's why MFs are better than direct equity as fund managers know when to exit bad stocks 😊😊

Jet Airways case study

The Promoter,The lender, The Management, The Strategic Partener,and The Government were all flying blind
 
 
After months of stalling, there is some progress made towards a resolution of the Jet Airways crisis. The Mumbai bench of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) admitted a petition filed by the State Bank of India for resolution of Jet Airways under the Insolvency code and suggested a timeline of 90 days, citing it as a matter of national importance.
In anticipation of such a move, the Jet Airways stock shot up by 150 percent on Thursday. The huge move was possible because of the unwinding of the short position in the counter.
But is the rally justified? Certainly not.
The case is now with NCLT, a body which is expected to protect the interest of the lenders. Given the present status of Jet Airways, it is very unlikely that there would be anything left over for shareholders after providing for lenders and creditors in case liquidation is recommended by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).
Jet Airways has already been grounded for two months after the airline ran out of cash, owing Rs 8,500 crore to a consortium of 26 banks led by SBI. Many employees of the company have since then been picked up by other airlines. Further, a number of lawsuits have been filed against the company and most of its 100 operational aircraft impounded.
Any company, consortium of investors or private equity player keen on acquiring the company will have a tougher task to revive the company than creating a new one. Unlike a manufacturing unit which is mothballed before it is shut down, reviving a company in the service sector like an airline is far more difficult.
It would be a sad day for the 22,000 employees and over 80,000 indirect dependents of Jet Airways if the company is stripped and sold. The blame for bringing the company down to the current state has to be shared by the promoter, its management, employees, lenders, strategic partner and the government.
The airline industry has low accident rates only because they listen to the black box of a crashed aeroplane and analyse the faults and take lessons from it. Similarly, the fall of Jet Airways also holds lessons for all stakeholders.
 
Promoters
For promoters, Jet Airways' promoter Naresh Goyal's stubbornness is a key takeaway. He held on to his position for too long, even when there were buyers and bankers willing to negotiate a deal to save the airline on condition that he steps down. For Goyal, his position was more important than the airline he created. Goyal also has did not see the changing tide of low-cost airlines. He continued to micro-manage the company, losing sight of the big picture.
 
Management
Goyal's management team and its Board of directors should have advised him of the changing fortunes. When it was obvious that the industry structure had changed with the fast growth of low-cost airlines, the Jet Airways team continued with its high-cost structure. For the management of other companies, the Jet Airways management represent the traditional workforce who would follow the owner unquestionably. This is not healthy for any company. Divergent views need to be encouraged and a logical solution chosen for the growth of the company rather than massaging the promoter's ego.
 
Employees
The highly paid employees of Jet Airways, especially the pilots, were worse than industry union leaders. At the drop of a hat, they were willing to go on a strike despite knowing the poor health of the company and the industry. They took political help to push their case and exert pressure on the management. But at the same time, thought should be spared to those thousands of workers who kept on coming every day for work without getting paid for months. There is a lesson here for the human resources departments across all companies.
 
Lenders
Lenders lived up to their reputation of offering an umbrella when the sun is out. Kicking out Goyal from the cockpit was the worst step the lenders could have taken. Goyal had his skin on the table and was running from pillar to post to keep his airline afloat. From the day Goyal was asked to resign from Jet Airways the company's operation collapsed like an aircraft without its engine.
The banks were only concerned about their own money and had no interest in running the company. They did not extend much-needed working capital which would have bought them time to find a suitor to buy the company. Their insistence of not taking a hit on their loan has now resulted in them losing most of their money. A case of penny wise and pound foolish is how this consortium led by SBI can be described.
There is no lesson here for the bankers since they never learn. They have not learnt from thousands of default cases and it is unlikely that they will now. SBI and other banks made the same mistake in the case of Kingfisher Airlines and are now crying foul over Jet Airways.
 
Strategic Partners
Jet Airways' strategic partner Etihad Airways also has contributed to the fall of Jet Airways. It placed its own interest in filling its Gulf and European routes which were in its parent company over that of running the airline efficiently in India and other parts of the world. The one-sided relationship led to a number of senior staff in Jet Airways leaving the company at a time when they were most needed to steer the company. Goyal in his desperation for funds agreed to terms with Etihad which in the long run led to its failure.
The lesson here for all companies seeking strategic partners is to think long-term rather than short term survival.
 
Government
Just like the bankers the government and its bureaucracy too will not take away anything from the Jet Airways fiasco. Creating a mess in Air India and Kingfisher the government did little to help Jet Airways. Though helping the company directly would have set a bad precedent, the government could have taken steps to help the airline industry. When almost all airlines are making losses there is surely something structurally wrong in the industry.
Airline operators have been pointing out the skewed cost structure on account of government taxes but all pleas fell on deaf ears. Unless something is done for the sector we may soon see more airlines crashing.
 
Shareholders
Finally, there is a big lesson for the shareholders. The market rewards performance and not hopes. Jet Airways was grounded in April 2019 yet there were buyers for the company at Rs 160. It took one month for these buyers to realise that there is little hope for the company. Even on Thursday there were no lessons learnt, a company going to NCLT does not mean that it is saved. It is sent there when all other doors are closed, just like they are for the shareholders of Jet Airways unless there is an investor with big pockets willing to take a huge risk.

Capex cycle Recovery: Cautious but Hopeful

Highlights

The main overhang of general elections holding back capex is behind us

Capex cycle, particularly government-led spending, to start from Q2 FY20

Private capex to pick up towards the end of the current fiscal

Sectors such as road, construction, railways, defence, power T&D and water to see contract award resuming soon

India's capex cycle has faltered, and a recovery remains elusive so far.
A series of events such as the Goods and Services Tax launch, demonetisation after-effect, the introduction of RERA in the real estate sector, and the banking and NBFC crisis disrupted the game.
Of course, a slowdown in government functioning ahead of the general elections and political uncertainty played their part. Other cues such as volatile oil prices, currency depreciation and the bitter trade war added fuel to the fire.
A few of these factors are behind us. We also analysed post-results commentary by managements of engineering and capital goods companies in light of the March quarter results. We sought to find answers to whether a capex recovery is on the cards and if yes, which sectors are better placed.
What can drive a capex cycle recovery?
The major uncertainty surrounding the elections is over. A government with a convincing majority is seen to improve the investment climate.
Projects that had been on hold because of the elections should come up for bidding once the Cabinet takes shape. Companies are hopeful that the projects nearing the 2020 completion deadline or flagship ones such as the Renewal Energy Mission, Bharatmala, Namami Gange, Housing for All, Green Corridor (power T&D project) would be expedited and accorded priority.
While the investment climate is expected to improve, companies have highlighted that the funding environment is improving as the banking and NBFC crisis is easing. Moreover, equity markets are expected to remain supportive. This should help kickstart project execution, especially those which have been delayed by the liquidity squeeze.
A lower interest rate regime and RBI's soft policy stance should augur well for growth in capital investments, especially by the private sector.
Timing of revival
At its analyst meet, L&T sounded a bit cautious about order inflows in Q1 FY20 in view of the Model Code of Conduct. However, the conglomerate has maintained its order intake guidance of 10-12 percent growth for this financial year and is confident of surpassing that guidance on the back of a pick-up in infrastructure activities, post-elections.
Similarly, Thermax offered a positive outlook. "For the past 4-5 months, there has been a significant slowdown in the large industrial capex in the country. However, we expect the order momentum to pick up in the second half of FY20," said M S Unnikrishnan, MD, Thermax.
Like Thermax and L&T, most companies are expecting the capex cycle -- particularly government-led -- to resume from the second or third quarter of the current financial year.
When will private capex resume?
Government-led capex is only one part, but a broad revival in private sector capex is expected only towards the end of 2019-20.
In fact, L&T's management cautioned that the private sector is being selective and a revival may not start in FY20, considering NCLT cases, a spate of defaults and the liquidity tightness. Companies like Thermax have also highlighted issues such as excess capacity in many industries.
ABB India sounded a bit cautious about any uptick in growth, at least in the current quarter. “Markets have been soft for a long time now, particularly on the industrial side. There have been fairly fewer investments. We believe that the June quarter too will be difficult in light of the recent performance of automobile, FMCG and a few other segments. Beyond that, it is difficult to read and assess the implications of a big political event in the country at this point in time,” said Sanjeev Sharma, MD, ABB India, during its March quarter analyst conference call. The commentary was before the election results were out.
The assessment at engineering companies is that a major or broad-based private capex recovery may not happen soon. Investors will have to wait till FY20-end or early next fiscal to see any concrete signs of a revival.
Also, Corporate India may wait for more clarity from the upcoming Budget on the new government's policies, allocations and priorities. They may wait for announcements from key ministries to set their priorities.
Which sectors will lead the recovery?
Companies are unanimous about the pick-up in government-led infrastructure and construction sector spending.
"With the momentum set on infrastructure building, coupled with incremental tax revenues, the emphasis on investment in airports, rail, roads, water supply and distribution, expressway programmes, power availability and connectivity, oil and gas production and mass rapid transit system is expected to continue," said L&T in its outlook for 2019-20.
Roads are a priority and orders from this sector are expected to resume soon. Others such as construction of ports, capex in railways and defence could be next. Companies in the defence sector such as Cochin Shipyard, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Dynamics, Hindustan Aeronautics, GRSE and many others are sitting on an order book of 5-10 times their annual sales.
They are expecting execution to improve and deliveries to take place in the first and second quarters of FY20. However, L&T is sees some delay in defence projects getting government approval, following which the award of contracts should begin.
India Inc thinks that the Railways would step up on order execution, helping revenue growth. Firms such as IRCON, RVNL, RITES are sitting on outstanding orders of about 5-6 times their sales. KEC International's railway division reported a strong 76 percent YoY growth in revenues in Q4.
KEC said the work for about 10,500 km of railway electrification will be awarded in FY20 and is expecting to get orders of worth Rs 3,500 crore in FY20, up 21 percent, from this segment.
"I think going ahead, the sectors such as construction should pick up. Along with that, we are expecting railways, marine, oil & gas to pick up. Overall, in the current fiscal, the domestic industrial business should grow at the higher end of 10-12 percent," said Cummins during its investor call.
Cement is another area where companies are witnessing sustained demand. Thermax in its call said: "All cement companies are now setting up captive power plants and FY20 cement ordering should continue." While the order flow in the domestic oil and gas sector was mostly subdued -- except the one that was won by Engineers India -- it expects two major refinery orders to come by in the second half of 2019-20.
In the transmission & distribution (T&D) sector, KEC International's management has upped its sales growth guidance to about 15-20 percent for FY20 and expects predicts better T&D ordering post-elections.
According to KEC International, the projects pertaining to the Green Corridor worth Rs 14,000-15,000 crore will be finalised by July-end as the timeline for the completion is within 15-18 months from now.
GE T&D has taken a similar line on the opportunities arising out of the Green Energy Corridor project. It expects evacuation of close to 67,000 mw of renewable energy. On an immediate basis, it sees tendering of about 29,000 mw and orders worth of Rs 6,000 crore, possibly starting in Q1 of 2019-20.

Lesser known benefits of Credit Card

# Five lesser known features and benefits of credit cards

Credit cards are one of the widely-used cashless payment methods because of the convenience they offer.
Credit cards also offer a ton of features and perks to the cardholders. While everyone does know a few common features of credit cards, there are several features that are lesser-known to most of the users.
Here are some lesser-known features of credit cards to know about.

#1

Customers can avail loans against their credit card

One of the lesser-known features of credit cards is the loan against credit cardfeature. Cardholders can avail loans on their credit cards against the available credit limit.
These instant loans are paperless loans and are one of the quickest and easiest options to borrow money as they are approved within minutes. However, all card issuers may not offer this facility.

#2

Credit cardholders can check their credit score for free

Another lesser-known credit card feature is cardholders can check their credit score for free.
Credit score companies, including major ones like CIBIL, Experian, Equifax, and Highmark, generally charge fees to provide credit profile or credit score.
However, these companies are usually tied-up with leading banks/card issuers and provide detailed analysis of an individual's credit profile to them; so, cardholders can access their credit score.

#3: Customers can also use the balance transfer feature
Some credit cards also come with a feature for transferring the balance from one (or more) credit cards to a single card. While all credit cards don't have this feature, card issuers offering this feature allow their customers to transfer balances from other credit cards.

#4

Many credit cards offer extended warranty, price protection

Credit card holders can also benefit from features like extended warranty and priceprotection policies offered by several card issuers.
Through the extended warranty feature, one can get extra warranty for free on certain products purchased using their credit cards.
Meanwhile, the price protection policy helps customers get a refund if the price of something they have purchased has fallen.

#5: Convert higher credit card purchases into EMIs
Many credit card issuers nowadays are offering an option to convert purchases of a certain value into EMIs. Customers, who cannot repay high-value purchases fully in one billing cycle, can use this facility to convert those into EMIs at a comparatively lower interest rate.

Paid last EMI of Car loan? What should you do.

A number of borrowers believe their job is done after paying the last equated monthly installment (EMI) on their car loan. But, it still an unfinished task for the borrower.
After completing the repayment of your car loan, there are some important things that you need to do as we explain below:
1. Take full and  final payment receipt
If you made the last EMI on your car loan or did a prepayment to close the car loan, then get the final payment receipt from your bank. This receipt will have the details of total amount paid, the date of last payment and the closure of the car loan.
2. Take a NOC
Within 2-3 weeks' time of repaying the car loan, you must receive all your documents from the bank. The set of documents include a No Due Certificate (NDC) or No Objection Certificate (NOC) from the bank along with other documents submitted at the time of the car loan application like cancelled cheques etc. In case, you don't receive from the bank then better to enquire after its status.
3. Get your repayment statement
Do collect the full repayment statement of your car loan from the bank. This will be useful while updating the credit history in case of any discrepancies in your credit score and the report. Also, this statement will help to resolve future conflicts if any while selling the car, claiming insurance, etc.
4. Remove hypothecation
Hypothecation essentially means that your car for which you have taken a loan for is kept as collateral with the bank till you pay off your loan. The car is in the physical possession of the customer but the bank is the actual owner of the car till the customer pays off the entire loan amount.
Kusal Roy, Managing Director at Tata Capital Financial Services says, “It is important to remove the hypothecation because it helps at the time of claiming insurance and till the hypothecation is removed you cannot sell or dispose the vehicle.”
To remove hypothecation, NOC from the bank is required. Submit the NOC to the regional transport office (RTO). Roy cautions, “The NOC from the bank is valid for three months from the date of its issue. So, do not delay in submitting the application for hypothecation removal from the car registration certificate at your respective RTO office before NOC expiration.” Only after the NOC is submitted to the RTO, for removal of the hypothecation, will you be able to transfer the car in your name.
Also, request for form 35, which will state the removal of hypothecation between you and the bank.
5. Update your car insurance policy
Hypothecation information is even recorded by car insurance company on your car insurance policy. So, you need to remove it from your car insurance policy after complete repayment of car loan. For the removal of hypothecation from the insurance policy, submit the NOC and revised car registration certificate to the car insurance company.